December 14, 2012

2030 Possible Game Changers

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) did an extensive study on how they expect the world to change over the next seventeen years through 2030. Below are some questions that per The National Intelligence Council the answers could significantly alter their forecast.

1. "Will divergences and increased volatility result in more global breakdown? Or will the development of multiple growth centers lead to increased resiliency?"

2. "Will current forms of governance and international institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness and channel change instead of being overwhelmed by it?"

3. "Will rapid changes and shifts in power lead to conflicts?"

4. "Will regional instability, especially in the Middle East and South Asia, spill over and create global insecurity?"

5. "Will technological breakthroughs occur in time to solve the problems caused by rapid urbanization, strain on natural resources, and climate change?"

6. "Will the US, as the leading actor on the world stage, be able to reinvent the international system, carving out potential new roles in an expanded world order?"

In essence the NIC is saying they put in allot of effort in developing their forecast, but world events are dynamic and the above factors demonstrate that forecasting is not a science so their prediction may not totally come to fruition. However, it is a great beginning and is an excellent tool, which should be used with caution.

The bottom line is it is better to plan than not. The exercise of planning will improve your chances of having a successful future. At the same time be ready to alter your plan as things change and become clearer. It is obvious that the United States will not continue to be the ultimate power. Other world inhabitants will be ready to claim their fair share based on their efforts and contributions. We will no longer be the "Oligopoly" of the world. We will have to compete with equals or near-equals.

Here are the NIC's conclusions.

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