December 13, 2012

Almost Certain In 2030

Below are some events that per The National Intelligence Council are almost certain to happen by the year 2030.

Majority of world’s population won’t be impoverished. Middle classes will expand in most countries. As individuals move into the middle class, values will shift including possible strengthening of religious, ethnic and national identities. But middle classes won’t feel secure: one billion workers from developing countries will be added to global labor pool, putting additional pressure on low-skilled labor.
Rapid extensions of life expectancy likely: global deaths from communicable diseases projected to drop by more than 40 percent. Some countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, will still have youthful populations, but demographic arc of instability will narrow on both east and west flanks. “Aging” countries face the possibility of decline in economic growth. Increased migration will spread to emerging powers. Urbanization set to grow to almost 60 percent.
 Asia is set to surpass North America and Europe in global economic power, but there will not be any hegemonic power. The power of other non-Western or middle-tier states will rise. This middle tier as a group will surpass Europe, Japan, and Russia. China’s economy will be 140-percent larger than Japan; India’s will be 16 times larger than Pakistan’s.Technology will be a great leveler, shifting the balance of power towards multifaceted networks.
Demand for resources will increase owing to an increase in global population from 7.1 billion today to about 8 billion by 2030. Demand for food set to rise 35 percent; energy 50 percent over the next 15-20 years. Nearly half of world population will live in areas with severe water stress. Fragile states most at risk, but China and India are vulnerable to volatility of key resources. Main questions will be whether there will be more effective management, wider technology use, and greater governance mechanisms.

The above summary is taken directly from the NIC's report. Because they are also forecasting that the United States will be energy independent by 2030, don't believe gas prices will remain stable. Over that same time period there will be a 50% increase in the demand for energy worldwide. Click here for a summary of the entire NIC report and here are there conclusions.

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