We have a long way to go with allot of pitfalls to be avoided.
Everyone is forgetting a depression was averted and it was not without cost. Believing that we had a depression that never was puts a different perspective on where we were and why we are here now. It is not that we over stimulated; it is that we were saved from a depression. It takes time and money to come back from hell. The difference between this depression and the last one in the 1930's is that we did not wait for the total meltdown before action was taken.
The consumer will continue to act rationally and restrain the level of his consumption.What do you expect when his largest asset, housing, having a high degree of leverage, falls by 33% of value?
No one in the west should depend on the oil cartel to take action that is in the best interest of oil consuming nations. This is especially tricky with the events of the "Arab Spring". It is impossible to predict the outcome of all of this turmoil. The only thing we can be sure of is it will be a bumpy, uncertain road.
The United States does not appear to be able to govern itself. The power in this country has shifted away from a Republic to an Oligarch controlled by large corporations looking out for their self interest without any governmental oversight.
Double dip or not, what difference does it make. It took us 30-years to dig the hole that we are in and we will not be getting out of it soon.